Crypto Market January Financial Calendar: Events That Impact Price Movements
The crypto market entered 2022 in a mixed atmosphere. Looking back at the 2021 market, it can be said that half was fire and half was ice. The first half was as enthusiastic as the second half was desolate, and the continuous oscillating decline for more than 40 days at the end of the year continued to consume investors' patience. However, "the extreme of life is death, and the extreme of death is life" - under the ice and snow of winter, grass is sprouting.
In the first month of 2022, how will the crypto market move? This will not only affect the sentiment of the entire market, but may also set the tone for the entire year of 2022. Although we cannot predict the future, we can prepare in advance by paying attention to scheduled events and find our own investment ideas and wealth codes.
Regularly checking the financial calendar and formulating response strategies in advance is a good habit for investors. Because in addition to uncertain "black swan" events that can cause major market changes, scheduled events can also drive the market crazy.
We have compiled all major financial events that will occur in the first quarter of 2022 (January-March). These events may affect the rise and fall of the entire market to varying degrees, and may even affect the foundation of the entire bull market.
Historically in January, What Was Bitcoin's Return Rate?
Before formally starting the article, let's first review: Historically in January, what was Bitcoin's return rate?
We pulled Bitcoin data from the OKX platform and third-party data website TradingView, and conducted screening and statistics. The results are as follows:
Bitcoin's historical January return rates (Created by: OKX Learn)
From the chart above, it can be seen that historically in January, Bitcoin overall had more negative returns. In 11 years, the ratio of gains to losses was 5:6, with an average return rate of 6.36%, showing overall poor performance.
However, Bitcoin and the crypto market have developed to today, and both the industry ecosystem and public awareness have changed greatly. What performance will the first month of 2022 have? Let's wait and see.
January 3-6, China, US, and Europe Manufacturing and Services PMI Data Released
On January 3, the EU released the Eurozone December manufacturing PMI final value data. The data showed that the Eurozone December manufacturing PMI final value was 58, lower than the previous value of 58.4, the lowest level since February. Although it continued to slow down, it remained above the 50.0 boom-bust line, with manufacturing continuing to expand.
On January 4, China released December Caixin manufacturing PMI data, recording 53. Although it fell 1.9 percentage points from November's decade-high, it was still significantly above the boom-bust line, indicating that economic recovery after the pandemic continues. On the same day, the US released December ISM manufacturing PMI of 58.7, the lowest since January 2021, below expectations of 60. Analysis suggests this was mainly due to declining delivery times and a sharp drop in the price payment index.
On January 5, the EU will release the December services PMI final value; on January 6, China and the US will release December Caixin services PMI data and December ISM non-manufacturing PMI data respectively.
PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) covers production and circulation, manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The PMI index and its business reports have become important evaluation indicators of world economic activity and a barometer of world economic changes.
China, the United States, and the European Union, as the three poles of the world economy, account for more than 60% of global GDP (2020 data), and can be said to largely represent the development of the world economy. The PMI data of these three economies very intuitively shows the hot and cold of world economic development and is a data indicator that must be followed.
Currently, the PMI data indicators of all three economies show a weakening trend, which may lead them to formulate active monetary and financial policies, which will overall benefit the crypto market.
January 7, US Non-Farm Data Released, Will "Non-Farm Night" Continue to Be Wild?
On January 7 (Friday) at 09:30 PM, the US Department of Labor will release the December non-farm employment report.
When the last US non-farm data was released (December 3), performance was significantly below expectations. Combined with the impact of the Omicron variant, it triggered a major decline in global investment markets including the crypto market. Bitcoin fell 28%, other digital assets fell more than 30%, and the entire market was "red" across the board.
Every time non-farm index data is released, it causes a major earthquake in global financial markets. What reaction will the market give on this Friday's "non-farm night"?
The market currently expects the US to create 374,000 non-farm jobs in December, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%. However, according to relevant data, employment willingness is still low, the labor participation rate is 1.5% lower than before the pandemic, and there is significant differentiation among different groups. This is not the "broad and full" employment defined by the Federal Reserve.
Now both the Federal Reserve and the US economy face this problem: with soaring inflation, employment growth remains at a "lukewarm level," which may put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma, because tightening monetary policy too early may pose risks to economic development, while tightening monetary policy may fundamentally shake the foundation of the crypto market bull run.
Simply put, this Friday's non-farm data release may set the tone for US economic development and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Not only do we need to pay attention to the short-term impact on the crypto market, but we also need to pay attention to the long-term impact.
January 7, Eurozone CPI Annual Rate Preliminary Value Released, Is Rate Hike No Longer "Far Away"?
On January 7, the Eurozone December CPI annual rate preliminary value will be released.
According to the latest forecast released by the European Central Bank in December last year, the average inflation rate in 2022 will be 3.2%, far higher than the 1.7% expected in September last year. However, the European Central Bank predicts that inflation rates will fall to 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, below the central bank's 2% target. But during the December policy meeting, several policymakers questioned the European Central Bank's forecast, believing that the ECB underestimated the risk of price growth remaining above the 2% target.
As inflation risks intensify, even the "dovish king" European Central Bank can no longer insist that rate hikes are "far away," and even claims that rate hikes could come as early as 2022. Previously, in December 2021, the European Central Bank had taken a small step in tightening policy, announcing that it would end the 1.85 trillion euro emergency pandemic purchase program (PEPP) in March this year, and PEPP purchase speed would also slow down in the first quarter.
In addition, around January 20 (the specific time is subject to official announcement), US CPI data will also be released. CPI data will have a significant impact on monetary and fiscal policies of various countries, thereby affecting all investment markets including the crypto market. Some researchers believe that Bitcoin and CPI have a medium to strong positive correlation in both short-term and long-term investment ranges. As shown below:
Source: Odaily
If Eurozone and US CPI data are higher than expected, it may accelerate the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank ending QE and starting rate hikes, which will have a huge impact on the crypto market.
January 27, Federal Reserve's First Interest Rate Meeting of 2022, Will It Cause a Global Market "Earthquake"?
On January 27, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate meeting of 2022 will be held as scheduled, and the corresponding interest rate decision and scale of bond purchase reduction will be announced.
The US economy entered 2022 with inflation at a 40-year high. Now the mainstream consensus in the market is: the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during the year to curb inflation and prevent economic overheating.
If according to the announcement at the last interest rate meeting of 2021 (December 15), reducing bond purchases by $30 billion per month, then bond purchases will end in March this year, after which the Federal Reserve will begin to consider raising interest rates. The latest dot plot suggests three rate hikes this year, as shown below:
Federal Reserve 2022 Schedule (Source: Tonghuashun)
Of course, the Federal Reserve interest rate dot plot has always been known for its variability, and current expectations do not equal actual actions this year. But it should be emphasized that the Federal Reserve voting committee will rotate at the first meeting this year (replacing four regional Fed presidents from last year), and the market believes that the 2022 voting committee is overall more "hawkish" than 2021. However, the bigger question will be who will fill the three board member vacancies. The market believes that US President Biden will nominate three relatively "dovish" board members to balance monetary policy.
In any case, on January 27, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate meeting of 2022 is something that requires full attention. This is the most important macroeconomic event of the entire month and can be said to affect the bull-bear pattern of the entire market.
January 31, Spring Festival Holiday Begins, Will There Be a "Spring Disaster"?
January 31 is New Year's Eve and the first day of the 7-day Spring Festival holiday. During the long holiday, almost all traditional financial institutions in China will be closed, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will also be closed, which may affect the market's ability to bear risks.
Due to the huge impact of the "Spring Festival effect," the crypto market will also be affected. Currently, there are two main opposing camps regarding the existence of the Bitcoin "Spring Festival effect": one side believes that Bitcoin prices have steadily risen during the Spring Festival for many years and it's a good time to enter the market; the other side believes that there will be a significant decline before the Spring Festival and it's necessary to exit the market.
We pulled Bitcoin data from the OKX platform and third-party data website QKL123 and found that starting from 2012, the ratio of Bitcoin price gains to losses during the Spring Festival was 7:3, with rising years occupying an absolute dominant position.
However, the second view is also supported by data. About 15-20 days before the Spring Festival, Bitcoin prices fall more than they rise, which may be when Chinese people start preparing funds for the New Year. But this year, with the entry of institutional investors represented by Wall Street institutions, whether the pattern is still effective is an unknown.
In fact, compared to the Bitcoin "Spring Festival effect" viewpoint, the overall environment inherited from the previous year and the occurrence of representative major events have a greater impact on Bitcoin price trends.
Conclusion
As we said in our previous article "Bitcoin 'Equitization,' Will Bull-Bear Boundaries Gradually Blur?" , with institutions entering and mainstream capital entering, digital assets represented by Bitcoin have become mainstream financial products. They not only begin to form synergies with global capital markets represented by US stocks, but will also increasingly show similar patterns.
Moreover, the crypto market is inherently a global market. As the entire market develops and grows, its relationship with the traditional world becomes increasingly close, and the corresponding impact becomes increasingly large. We have compiled all major financial events that will occur in the first quarter of 2022 (January-March). These events may affect the rise and fall of the entire market to varying degrees, and may even affect the foundation of the entire bull market.
Disclaimer
This article may contain content related to products that are not available in your region. This article is only committed to providing general information and is not responsible for any factual errors or omissions. This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent OKX's views. This article is not intended to provide any of the following advice, including but not limited to: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal or tax advice. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly or even become worthless. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. For questions about your specific situation, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. Information appearing in this article (including market data and statistical information, if any) is for general reference only. Although we have taken all reasonable care in preparing this data and charts, we assume no responsibility for any factual errors or omissions expressed herein. © 2025 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or less from this article may be used, provided that such use is non-commercial. Any reproduction or distribution of the entire article must also prominently state: "This article is copyrighted © 2025 OKX and used with permission." Permitted excerpts must cite the article name and include attribution, such as "Article Name, [Author Name (if applicable)], © 2025 OKX". Some content may be generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Derivative works or other uses of this article are not permitted.
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