Who Holds the 18.9 Million Bitcoin, and What Impact Will They Have on the Market?
According to data from third-party website Tokenview, the current circulating supply of Bitcoin is: 18,903,702. Calculated against the total supply of 21 million, this reaches exactly 90%, meaning that over 90% of Bitcoin has already been mined.
In this regard, Bitcoin Magazine marked this milestone on Twitter: Breaking news—90% of the 21 million Bitcoin supply has now been mined, with only 10% of the supply remaining to be mined over the next 119 years!
As the "anchor" and bellwether of the entire crypto market, Bitcoin's circulating supply and inflation rate not only affect its own value, but also have a tremendous impact on all assets in the crypto market. So who holds the 18.9 million Bitcoin that have already been mined? What are their market behaviors, and what impact will they have on the rise and fall of the crypto market?
90% of Bitcoin Has Been Mined—Who Holds It?
Before diving into this question, let's briefly explain and review Bitcoin's mining mechanism and history.
On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto personally created Bitcoin's first block and received 50 Bitcoin as the block reward. Subsequently, Bitcoin underwent three block reward halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, which in fact triggered three rounds of bull markets.
Bitcoin's block reward halves every 210,000 blocks, and since Bitcoin generates approximately one block every 10 minutes, we can calculate that the Bitcoin block reward halves approximately every four years. Therefore, by around 2140, Bitcoin will no longer be divisible (each Bitcoin can be divided to eight decimal places), Bitcoin's halving will end and issuance will be complete, with the total issuance reaching a maximum of approximately 21 million. At that time, miners will primarily earn "wages" through Bitcoin transaction fees.
From the above content, we can see: Mining 18.9 million Bitcoin took 12.9 years; mining 20.79 million Bitcoin will take 25.8 years; mining 20.979 million Bitcoin will take 38.7 years. Regarding this phenomenon, Bitcoin core developer Jimmy Song commented on Twitter: 90% of Bitcoin's supply was released over 12.9 years; subsequently, 9% of Bitcoin's supply will also take roughly the same time to be released, and then 0.9% of Bitcoin's supply will similarly take the same time to be released. Exponential math is cool.
Predictability and unalterable financial properties are one of the core factors that attract investors to Bitcoin, while the scarcity caused by Bitcoin's deflationary model is one of the foundations for Bitcoin's continuously increasing value.
After reviewing Bitcoin's mining mechanism and history, we can better understand Bitcoin's circulation situation. Of course, Bitcoin's circulation is a complex system, and here we mainly interpret it from the perspective of Bitcoin holding entities.
First are miners, who are the earliest and most important group of Bitcoin holders. According to relevant data, miners already held over 1.82 million Bitcoin at the end of last year, but this data does not completely monitor all miners, so the actual amount held by miners is even higher. Although some miners sold some Bitcoin during Bitcoin's rise this year, the overall amount held by miners is still continuously increasing. The continuously growing Bitcoin network hashrate can indirectly support this view: Bitcoin network hashrate increased from 142E at the beginning of this year to around 196E at its highest in December.
Second are institutions, which are another important Bitcoin holding entity, and in the future, institutions' holding weight will only increase. According to BuyBitcoin data, institutions' publicly disclosed total holdings are 1,494,922 Bitcoin. If broken down, ETFs hold 807,401, governments hold 263,137, public companies hold 240,757, and private companies hold 174,068. This includes familiar names such as Grayscale holding 645,622 and Tesla holding 42,902.
Next are whales, a concept that partially overlaps with institutions and miners, but has richer connotations. Including individual Bitcoin investors, exchanges, third-party wallets, and various other entities. According to data from qkl123, the top 100 Bitcoin addresses collectively hold 3.149 million Bitcoin. Meanwhile, according to NBER research data from this October, approximately one-third of circulating Bitcoin, or about 6.29 million, is controlled by the top 10,000 individuals, with the top 1,000 individual investors controlling approximately 3 million Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Rich List (Source: qkl123)
In addition, there are lost Bitcoins. The number of permanently "lost" Bitcoins due to lost private keys, intentional "burning," and other reasons is also a huge figure. Although it's currently impossible to completely and accurately calculate this number, a relatively common consensus is: it should be no less than 3 million.
Ordinary investors: The Bitcoin held by numerous ordinary investors is mainly distributed on exchanges and in third-party wallets, making it difficult to specifically count the quantity, but they have significant influence on short-term market movements.
Another holder worth mentioning is Satoshi Nakamoto. As Bitcoin's founder, the amount of Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto has always been a focus of investor attention. According to data from his early mining, Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to own approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin today, and most of these Bitcoin have not changed hands, have not been converted to fiat currency, and have not been used for any other purpose.
Of course, there are many more Bitcoin holding entities. The holding entities mentioned above are those with relatively large market impact. They play a leading role in Bitcoin's circulation and value appreciation and can be said to determine Bitcoin's rise and fall as well as bull-bear market transitions.
What Impact Will Different Coin-Holding Groups Have on the Market?
From the content above, we know that Bitcoin holding entities are diverse. As Bitcoin continues to be recognized and accepted, holding entities will become even more diverse. Among these entities, due to differences in capital amounts, holding purposes and methods, and even acquisition methods, they will exhibit different market behaviors, and these behaviors will more or less affect Bitcoin price rises and falls as well as the entire crypto market's rises and falls, whether in the long term or short term.
If we categorize Bitcoin holding entities by the liquidity of their holdings, they can be simply divided into three types: high liquidity, liquidity, and illiquidity.
First, high-liquidity entities. Ordinary investors and some institutional investors belong to this category. Their purpose in holding Bitcoin is mainly to obtain returns, with particular attention to short-term returns, and they conduct trading relatively frequently. Although they may not necessarily make money in the end, they have a significant impact on short-term market rises and falls.
In the first two Bitcoin halving cycles, high-liquidity holders occupied the dominant market position, which led to early Bitcoin price explosions and crashes. In this halving cycle, the proportion of Bitcoin held by these holders has significantly decreased, but they still have a significant impact on short-term price rises and falls, especially in every crash, where high-liquidity holders are the main force. As shown in the chart below, the proportion of Bitcoin UTXOs aged less than 3 months is positively correlated with the magnitude of each Bitcoin explosion and crash—that is, the higher the proportion of UTXOs less than 3 months, the greater the magnitude of Bitcoin price rises and falls.
Bitcoin UTXO Age Distribution (Source: qkl123)
Next are liquidity entities. Miners and some whales and institutions belong to this category. Miners are forced to sell some Bitcoin due to regular electricity payments, machine upgrades and maintenance, and other reasons, but their buying and selling frequency is not too high, so their impact on the market is more cyclical, medium- to long-term. Some whales and institutions value Bitcoin's function as a channel for rapid capital entry and exit, especially as Bitcoin's market cap grows larger. This impact on the market may be intermittent. Of course, as Bitcoin becomes increasingly recognized, this impact will grow in quantity.
Finally, illiquid entities typically refer to most institutions, whales at this stage, as well as the lost Bitcoin and Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto mentioned above. According to a report released by data analytics firm Glassnode at the end of last year, approximately 14.5 million Bitcoin are held by illiquid entities. According to data from qkl123, the proportion of Bitcoin UTXOs aged over 1 year is: 54.52%.
Although 90% of Bitcoin has been mined, according to relevant statistics, most of the circulating Bitcoin supply is held by entities with little or no selling record. Bitcoin's inherent scarcity and recognition are increasingly high. Most Bitcoin holders intend to hold long-term. The "HODL" group represented by institutions continues to grow, and the proportion of illiquid Bitcoin will also increase. This will undoubtedly have a positive and long-term impact on Bitcoin's value appreciation.
In summary, changes in Bitcoin holding entities and changes in the amounts held by entities not only affect Bitcoin's short-term or long-term price rises and falls, but also have an important impact on the basic form of the entire crypto market. This can be said to be content that crypto market investors must pay attention to, and will also be a key influencing factor for future bull-bear market transitions in the crypto market.
Disclaimer
This article may contain product-related content not applicable to your region. This article is intended to provide general information only and does not take responsibility for any factual errors or omissions contained herein. This article represents only the author's personal views and does not represent OKX 's views. This article is not intended to provide any advice, including but not limited to: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins) involves high risk, may fluctuate significantly, and may even become worthless. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. For questions regarding your specific situation, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. The information appearing in this article (including market data and statistics, if any) is for general reference only. Although we have taken all reasonable precautions in preparing these data and charts, we accept no responsibility for any factual errors or omissions expressed herein. © 2025 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or less from this article may be used, provided such use is non-commercial. Any reproduction or distribution of the entire article must also prominently state: "This article is copyrighted © 2025 OKX, used with permission." Permitted excerpts must cite the article name and include attribution, such as "Article Name, [Author Name (if applicable)], © 2025 OKX". Some content may be generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Derivative works or other uses of this article are not permitted.
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