The One-Year Anniversary of "3. 12", Bitcoin Is in the Midst of a Great Transformation
BCH+0. 66%
At the beginning of 2020, the world was hit by a black swan event in the form of a global pandemic, which dealt a severe blow to the world economy. The U.S. stock market triggered circuit breakers four times within two months, oil witnessed "negative prices," and gold's "safe-haven" narrative began to lose its luster after it plummeted from 1,700 to 1,500 points. Legendary investor Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates was rumored to have been margin-called, Buffett's value investment strategy faltered, and the fund posted a net loss of nearly $50 billion in the first quarter — leaving everyone on edge.
During that period of global assets racing to "outdo each other in declines," Bitcoin was no exception, particularly on March 12th, when investors experienced their "darkest hour." On that day, both the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin crashed simultaneously. The Dow closed down 9.99%, its largest single-day decline since October 1987. Meanwhile, OKX market data showed Bitcoin plummeting from around $8,000 to $5,500 in a single day, then dropping further to a low of $3,791.9 the following day — a decline exceeding 52% in just two days.
A year has passed in the blink of an eye. The new March 12th is approaching, and Bitcoin has surged 13-fold over the past year, breaking through the $55,000 level that seemed unimaginable just a year ago, fulfilling the ambitious predictions once made about it. However, under the shadow of the dark memory of "312," Bitcoin's future trajectory has once again reached a crossroads of divergence.
Some believe that "Black 312" was the first of its kind but will certainly not be the last. With the pandemic raging and global tensions running high, "312" may strike again. Others feel that we are already in a major bull market cycle, and it will be more spectacular than any previous bull run, because this rally is being driven by institutions. Against the backdrop of global money printing, institutions continue pouring in源源 — $55,000 for Bitcoin is merely the starting point of a new chapter. On the occasion of the one-year anniversary of "312," this article aims to provide a brief overview of the changes Bitcoin has undergone over the past year, hoping to offer some insights into its future development.
Bitcoin's "312 One-Year Anniversary"
On March 15, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced an emergency 100-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, bringing it down to 0%–0.25%, and launched a new round of QE worth $700 billion. This was the Fed's second rate cut during the "Black March" — having already executed an emergency 50-basis-point cut on March 3rd to address the stock market crash. Such a rapid sequence of rate cuts was highly unusual. Following the Fed's move to zero out the benchmark rate, central banks in the UK, Canada, Australia, and dozens of other countries followed suit with one or more emergency rate cuts.
On March 27th local time, then-U.S. President Donald Trump formally signed a $2.2 trillion economic stimulus bill — the largest economic stimulus package in U.S. history. Against the backdrop of massive money printing, global assets gradually stabilized and rebounded, and Bitcoin began its performance.
On May 12th, Bitcoin underwent its third halving at block height 630,000, with the block reward reduced by 50% from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoin , lowering the inflation rate to 1.79%. By then, Bitcoin's price had already climbed to around $8,900.
On June 15th, Compound and Balancer launched yield farming, igniting a DeFi craze. The market grew increasingly active under the successive "wealth-creation effects."
On July 24th, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) allowed banks to provide cryptocurrency custody services. Starting from July 20th, Bitcoin closed positively for 10 consecutive days, rising from $9,120 to $11,000 — a gain exceeding 20% in 10 days.
On November 7th, multiple U.S. media outlets calculated based on existing vote counts that Democratic candidate Joe Biden had secured enough electoral votes to clinch the presidential election. On November 9th, American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that its Phase 3 clinical trial for a COVID-19 vaccine showed over 90% efficacy. On November 25th, Shi Shengyi, Deputy General Manager of China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm), stated that Sinopharm had submitted its COVID-19 vaccine for market approval to the National Medical Products Administration. Benefiting from multiple positive catalysts, Bitcoin posted a monthly gain of 40.8% in November, closing near $13,000.
On December 3rd, S&P Global, a world-renowned financial analysis firm, announced through its S&P Dow Jones Indices subsidiary that it would partner with New York-based crypto assets software and data company Lukka to launch a cryptocurrency index in 2021. On December 16th, Bitcoin broke through $20,000 to reach a new all-time high. On December 28th, Trump signed a new COVID relief bill and government funding bill totaling $900 billion.
Entering 2021, Bitcoin continued its strong upward trajectory from $28,000. On January 15th, President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief and stimulus plan to address the pandemic's impact on families and businesses. The bill was formally passed on March 7th, signaling another round of massive money printing ahead. Given Bitcoin's parabolic growth following the global liquidity surge a year prior, its future performance is worth anticipating.
As of March 11th at 16:00, OKX real-time market data showed Bitcoin trading at $55,026, representing a year-to-date gain of 87.6%. CoinMarketCap data indicated Bitcoin's market capitalization once again surpassed $1 trillion. On the monthly chart, Bitcoin had already achieved six consecutive positive months — a remarkable performance.
"Investment Queen" Cathie Wood once stated, "When things go too smoothly, you need to be extra cautious." Worth noting as a potential warning sign for the overheated market: Bitcoin's total open interest across exchanges hit a new all-time high of $20.157 billion on Bybt. Many view Bitcoin's open interest as a market trend indicator. Previously, this metric set a record of $19.195 billion on February 22nd, followed by Bitcoin plunging nearly 25% from $57,300 to around $43,200 within just seven days. Combined with lingering panic from "312," the outlook for subsequent price action remains to be seen.
Institutions Flooding In: Bitcoin May Begin to Erode Gold's Market Share
Compared to a year ago, however, Bitcoin's fundamentals have changed dramatically. What can be confirmed is that an increasing number of publicly traded companies and institutions are openly entering the space — what was once a "dream" has become reality. Bitcoin's core narrative has fundamentally shifted, and its value proposition has become far more diversified.
On April 18th, 2020, Medallion Funds, a prominent hedge fund under Renaissance Technologies, was approved to trade Bitcoin futures on the CME. On May 7th, legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones publicly disclosed that 1%–2% of his assets were invested in Bitcoin , describing it as a "great speculation."
On August 11th of the same year, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor revealed that his company had purchased $250 million worth of Bitcoin and announced it would adopt Bitcoin as the primary holding in its asset reserve strategy. On September 14th, the company disclosed an additional purchase of 16,796 Bitcoin at a total cost of $175 million. As of March 11th, 2021, MicroStrategy held 91,064 Bitcoin, acquired at a total cost of $2.196 billion with a current value of $4.966 billion — an unrealized gain of $2.77 billion.
On October 14th, asset management giant Stone Ridge disclosed a major Bitcoin acquisition of 10,000 Bitcoin through New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), valued at approximately $550 million at current prices. On November 11th, American billionaire and legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller stated in a CNBC interview that he personally held Bitcoin.
On November 24th, Pendal Group, an Australian Securities Exchange-listed company managing $100 billion AUD ($73.6 billion USD) in assets, announced it would trade Bitcoin futures via CME Investment.
On December 10th, Fidelity Digital Assets partnered with crypto asset lending platform BlockFi to offer Bitcoin-collateralized USD loans. One day later, MassMutual Life Insurance Company purchased $100 million worth of Bitcoin for its general investment account through NYDIG.
Later that month, Musk asked MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor on Twitter how to convert the "large Trading " on Tesla's balance sheet into Bitcoin. On February 8th, Tesla disclosed in its annual report that it had purchased approximately $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and expected to soon accept Bitcoin as a payment method for its cars and other products.
On January 16th, 2021, Goldman Sachs was considering entering the digital asset custody business, and on March 2nd stated it would begin offering Bitcoin futures and nondeliverable forward trading services to clients the following week. On January 21st, BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management companies, filed with the U.S. SEC indicating it may purchase Bitcoin futures through certain funds under its umbrella.
Cathie Wood, dubbed the "Investment Queen" and "Female Warren Buffett," is a staunch Bitcoin advocate. In a February CNBC interview, she stated that if all companies were to allocate 10% of their funds to Bitcoin, the price could rise by another $200,000+. ARKW under her Ark Invest management holds Bitcoin through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with Bitcoin constituting 4.57% of its portfolio as of March 1st.
On February 23rd, American mobile payments company Square disclosed it had purchased approximately 3,318 Bitcoin at a total cost of $170 million, averaging $51,200 per Bitcoin. Combined with Square's earlier $50 million Bitcoin purchase, this represents approximately 5% of Square's total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of December 31st, 2020.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, a total of 25 publicly traded companies currently hold 178,800 Bitcoin, with a total value of $9.717 billion.
In the retail sector, payments giant PayPal announced support for cryptocurrency payments on October 21st, 2020, with plans to cover 26 million merchants by 2021. It had also secured the first conditionally granted cryptocurrency license from New York's financial regulator. The first phase enabled users to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash on its platform. On November 12th, PayPal opened its new cryptocurrency service to all eligible U.S. users, meaning qualified PayPal account holders could directly purchase, hold, and sell cryptocurrency through PayPal.
Additionally, global payments giant Mastercard stated on February 11th that it planned to offer cryptocurrency payment options for merchants later this year.
For both retail and institutional investors, another major positive catalyst was the successful approval of the world's first Bitcoin ETF — the Purpose Bitcoin ETF — on February 12th, which began Trading in Canada on the 18th. As of March 10th, it had accumulated $885 million in assets under management, holding 12,467 Bitcoin.
On another note, many analysts believe Bitcoin's rise is gradually eroding gold's market share. JPMorgan's quantitative strategists, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, stated on December 9th, 2020, that the rise of cryptocurrency in mainstream finance has come at the expense of gold. On January 6th, 2021, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh stated in an interview that he had changed his view on Bitcoin, seeing it as the new gold. On March 1st, Citibank released a report titled "Bitcoin at a Tipping Point," suggesting that within seven years, Bitcoin could become the "preferred currency" for international trade.
Goldman Sachs' latest report showed that as of March 4th, Bitcoin's year-to-date return was approximately 70% — twice the 35% return of the energy sector, which ranked second. The report's charts also indicated that Bitcoin had outperformed all major traditional asset classes year-to-date.
Reviewing Bitcoin's development over the past year, it is evident that the growing institutional participation has been the primary driver behind its rising price. However, after Bitcoin's 13-fold surge in one year, a question naturally arises: How long can this rally sustain? How high can Bitcoin go? The six consecutive months of gains on the monthly chart is on one hand exciting, but on the other, unsettling — and this sentiment, coupled with the approaching anniversary of Black 312, is beginning to brew.
Weibo finance blogger Beatle News posted: "Bears see the letter A, bulls see the letter B. So, what do you see?"
Disclaimer: Digital asset trading involves significant risk. This material should not be relied upon as an investment decision-making basis, nor should it be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and invest cautiously. The OKX Academy provides information for reference only, does not constitute any investment advice, and all investment activities by users are unrelated to this site.
Disclaimer
This article may contain product-related content that does not apply to your region. This article is intended solely to provide general information and makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the facts presented. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of OKX. This article is not intended to provide any advice, including but not limited to: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Holdings in digital assets (including stablecoins) involve a high degree of risk and may fluctuate significantly in value, or even become worthless. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is appropriate for you based on your financial situation. For questions specific to your circumstances, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. The information provided herein (including market data and statistics, where applicable) is for general reference purposes only. While all reasonable precautions have been taken in preparing these data and charts, we accept no responsibility for any factual errors or omissions expressed herein. © 2025 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or less may be used, provided that such use is non-commercial. Any reproduction or distribution of the full article must prominently state: "© 2025 OKX. All rights reserved. Used by permission." Permitted excerpts must cite the article title and include attribution, e.g., "Article Title, [Author Name (if applicable)], © 2025 OKX." Some content may have been generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Derivative works and other uses of this article are not permitted.
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