OKX Research: Miner ETFs See Limited Upside Amid Rate Hike Expectations
OKX Research
On February 7, 2022, according to a Nasdaq filing: Valkyrie's Bitcoin miners ETF (Bitcoin Miners ETF) was approved for listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker WGMI. On its first trading day, WGMI rose 6.6%, with trading volume exceeding 150,000 shares.
According to OKX market data: Bitcoin price strengthened around the news, breaking above the $45,800 level and hitting a one-month high. The approval of this Miners ETF for trading was also viewed within certain circles as a "booster shot" to reverse the market's downward trend.
Why is there a special correlation between the approval of Bitcoin miners ETF and market movements? What exactly is an ETF? And what does a Bitcoin ETF mean for the crypto financial market? Below, we will walk you through a general overview of these questions.
1. What Is a Bitcoin ETF and What Is Its Significance?
First, some background on the Bitcoin ETF.
ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), also known as an exchange-traded fund, is a type of open-end fund listed and traded on an exchange with variable share counts. This regulated, compliant financial product allows fund shares to be listed and freely traded on trading platforms like stocks, providing retail investors with compliant investment options. The crypto industry has long awaited the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The precedent set by gold ETFs provides a compelling explanation for this strong anticipation:
In 2003, Australia launched the world's first gold-backed ETF. In October of the following year, the U.S. ETF GLD received SEC approval and officially began trading in November. This significantly lowered the barrier to gold investment, allowing new traders to gain gold exposure more easily through ETFs.
As more traders and funds flowed in, gold began a prolonged bull market. As shown in the price chart below: several years after the ETF GLD approval, gold prices rose from the $410–440 range all the way to highs near $1,900, a cumulative gain of over 340%.
If a Bitcoin spot ETF receives SEC approval and officially launches, it would very likely replicate gold's trajectory driven by continuous fund inflows — its importance is self-evident. This is precisely why the market is so sensitive to all types of ETF-related news.
2. Market Expectations Rise, But the SEC Rejects Bitcoin Spot ETF Applications Six Times
In 2016, Bats BZX Exchange submitted an application to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust product — the earliest verifiable formal Bitcoin ETF application on record — which was rejected by the SEC on grounds of "preventing price manipulation and market fraud." Over the following years, dozens of companies and institutions submitted Bitcoin ETF applications to the SEC, but none were approved.
In 2021, a breakthrough opportunity emerged for Bitcoin ETFs: during the first quarter, Canadian asset management company Purpose Investments Inc. received approval from the Ontario Securities Commission to launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the world's first Bitcoin ETF. Canada subsequently approved the Evolve Bitcoin ETF and CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF. According to OK Link data: Purpose BTC ETF holdings once exceeded 30,000 Bitcoin.
Likely influenced by the aggressive policies of Canada, Brazil, and other countries, the U.S. SEC also began reconsidering Bitcoin-related ETFs, adjusting its longstanding "delay and reject" approach.
On October 19, 2021, the Bitcoin futures ETF offered by U.S. financial services provider ProShares received SEC approval and officially began trading on the NYSE under the ticker BITO. According to Bloomberg statistics, the ETF saw a turnover of over 24 million units on its first day, with total trading volume approaching $1 billion — second only to BlackRock's carbon-neutral ETF, making it the second-highest first-day trading volume for an ETF in history.
The approval of the Bitcoin futures ETF gave the market at the time a glimpse of the infinite possibilities for a spot ETF. However, regrettably: the SEC subsequently rejected Bitcoin spot ETF applications six times. It should be noted that the difference in participation thresholds and comprehension costs between Bitcoin futures ETFs and spot ETFs is roughly similar to the difference between Bitcoin futures trading and spot trading. Therefore, the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs still had limited impact.
3. This "ETF" Is Not That "ETF"
In 2021, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market undoubtedly saw a flurry of positive developments: Tesla accepted Bitcoin payments, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, Coinbase successfully listed on the Nasdaq, MicroStrategy and other institutions continued buying, and a series of ETFs launched across major economies.
It is evident that Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance underwent a qualitative shift over the course of that year. Driven by one positive catalyst after another, Bitcoin surged to a new price high of $69,000, finishing the year with a 60% gain — outperforming gold (-3.6%), crude oil (56%), the Nasdaq index (26%), and even Tesla (49%), which had been the star of the previous year.
In 2022, the digital assets market is filled with uncertainty:
On one hand, U.S. inflation levels have hit multi-decade highs not seen in nearly 40 years, with CPI data in both the U.S. and the U.K. breaking through multi-decade highs. Curbing inflation has become a global priority, hawkish rhetoric is escalating, and rate hike expectations continue to build. Once monetary policy tightens, the era of global liquidity infusion through quantitative easing will come to an end, and as the tide of abundant liquidity recedes, financial markets will face downward pressure.
On the other hand, investors remain concerned about future prospects given historical reference points from Bitcoin's halving cycle trajectories. In this context, whether the SEC approves the Bitcoin spot ETF has become a decisive factor in helping the market regain its upward momentum. As a result, some market participants view the listing of the Bitcoin Miners ETF on the Nasdaq as a key turning point for the crypto market to break out of its three-month downward trend.
However, it should be noted that this "ETF" is not that "ETF." Unlike Bitcoin futures and spot ETFs, which fall under the category of quasi-securities, Bitcoin miners are physical businesses, which means the Bitcoin Miners ETF only needed to pass Nasdaq's review to launch. In other words: the listing of the miners ETF cannot be used to gauge whether the SEC's stance on Bitcoin spot ETFs has changed.
Around the same time, the SEC sought public comments on several Bitcoin spot ETF applications, asking the public to provide feedback on whether this type of ETF and Bitcoin itself are vulnerable to manipulation and fraud. It also extended the review period for Global X's Bitcoin ETF application, pushing the decision date to April 20.
As things stand, the likelihood of Bitcoin spot ETF approval has not increased. Moreover, the Bitcoin Miners ETF tracks various mining companies and has no direct correlation with Bitcoin's price or fund inflows, so it cannot be considered a way to gain direct Bitcoin exposure. Therefore, retail investors should not readily equate the approval of the Bitcoin Miners ETF with future developments in the Bitcoin spot ETF space.
In summary, the approval of the Bitcoin Miners ETF should not be viewed as a turning point signaling a shift in the SEC's attitude, nor as a significant positive for boosting market confidence. The future trajectory of the crypto market will depend externally on the degree of global monetary policy tightening, changes in the international landscape, and whether the spot ETF receives SEC approval. Internally, it will depend on whether the industry ecosystem developed over the past year can provide stronger support for sustained market growth and whether infrastructure development can achieve breakthroughs.
But regardless of whether the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved for now, the momentum of the crypto market's蓬勃发展 has not been halted. In the long run, the development potential of crypto assets is far from being exhausted, sufficient to support long-term bullish market expectations.
Disclaimer
This article may contain product content not applicable to your region. This article is provided for general informational purposes only and makes no responsibility for any factual errors or omissions. This article represents the author's personal views only and does not constitute the views of OKX. This article is not intended to provide any advice, including but not limited to: (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Holdings in digital assets (including stablecoins) involve a high degree of risk, may fluctuate significantly, and could become worthless. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is appropriate for you based on your financial situation. For questions about your specific circumstances, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. The information contained in this article (including market data and statistics, where applicable) is provided for general reference purposes only. While all reasonable precautions have been taken in the preparation of such data and charts, we assume no responsibility for any factual errors or omissions expressed herein. © 2025 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or fewer may be used, provided that such use is non-commercial in nature. Any reproduction or distribution of the full article must prominently state: "This article is copyrighted © 2025 OKX, used with permission." Authorized excerpts must cite the article title and include the source, for example: "Article title, [author name (if applicable)], © 2025 OKX." Some content may be generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Derivative works and other uses of this article are not permitted.
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